Based on data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket in Polygon has said that 88% of its 2024 trading volume is linked to bets on the result of the U.S. election.
The U.S. elections have had significant impacts on activity on blockchain prediction markets like Polymarket, which has seen over $650 million worth of trades this year. This substantial sum was bet in July, nearly half of it on candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for the November presidential election.
According to Dune data, markets marked “Presidential Election Winner 2024” and “Democratic Nominee” make up 50% of Polymarket’s trade volume. Richard Chen, who used to be the general partner at 1confirmation, brought this up.
Polymarket Sees Election Surge
Bets on elections have been much higher than bets on other events, like the Paris Olympics this month and the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in January.
Even though election-related bets have done exceptionally well, The blockchain prediction market has also seen significant jumps in volume for events which are not tied to elections in January, May, June, and August.
As the election year comes to a close, people are wondering if Polymarket can keep up its pace. Chen says that the platform’s current progress and the fact that significant crypto investors are still interested could keep trading volumes high.
People are putting a lot of funds on Kamala Harris to beat former President Donald Trump. Harris recently passed Trump as the favorite candidate after an important event at a Pennsylvania gathering. At this point, Harris has a 51% chance of winning, while Trump’s chance is 47%. Users of Polymarket have already bet $642 million on the result of the election.
