James Check, a well-known on-chain expert who goes by the name “Checkmatey,” just put out a full study of the many complicated factors that affect how the Bitcoin market works. By carefully looking at on-chain data, he has learned new things about what changes the price of Bitcoin. It sheds light on a period of time he calls “Quiet and Trending,” during which prices stayed stable despite big pulls from the sell side and changes in volatility.
There has been a lot of push to sell Bitcoin since December, and more than 1.5 million BTC have been sold. Looks like GBTC is to blame for about 30% of this sell-off. The rest is because regular people are making funds. There are a lot of deals in Bitcoin, but the price of the cryptocurrency has only dropped 20%, which is very stable. To sum up, this shows that Bitcoin has strong underlying support that is separate from what happens on the market bubble.
Bitcoin’s Volatility Surprising Revelation by Check
The study that Check did showed that Bitcoin’s volatility is changing, which was a major surprise. He says that BTC overall instability is a lot lower now than it was in the past. This is proof that the market is heading up and turning into a more stable type of asset over time.
Check doesn’t agree with the popular story about how volatile BTC is, and they stress that volatility to the rise can be good. He thinks that the current rise in volatility is not very important and that it shows that the market is still in the early stages of a rising trend.
Check checks the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) Ratio often to see how the market is doing and to spot the different stages. Based on what he has learned, this number stays the same within a certain range. Any changes outside of that range could mean that market conditions are changing.
Recently, there was a sell-off that sent BTC price quickly down to $57,000. However, Check says that this did not have a big effect on the profits of short-term holders. It was good that some top buyers sold out of fear during the correction phase, he thinks, because it got rid of investors who were not strong and kept the market safe.
Check shows how Bitcoin’s volatility is similar to the volatility of the most important US stocks in response to complaints about how volatile Bitcoin is. According to him, Bitcoin’s volatility is still doable and not too bad.
By breaking down the details of the current market phase, Check helps you learn more about BTC history. He does this by weighing BTC start as a speculative asset against its promise as a popular investment. On the last part, he talks about how well Bitcoin’s recent rise has been planned, but he also worries about possible volatility spikes during phases of consolidation.
At the moment, one Bitcoin is worth $66,288.
