Starting a pivotal week, market players are closely monitoring numerous key indicators and events that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term direction. Renowned crypto researcher Ted (@tedtalksmacro) has investigated carefully stressing the key parts in action.
Ted begins his studies with an eye toward the more general macroeconomic scene. Last week’s encouraging results for risk assets from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) indicate a sustained disinflationary trend. ” Both CPI and PPI data were positive for risk assets, so indicating that the disinflationary trend is still under way,” Ted remarked. He did caution, though, that the remarks of the Federal Reserve suggested the market shouldn’t be anticipating rapid rate lowering.
This week’s main attention will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its updated dot plot. In March, the dot map indicated likely 2-3 times in 2024 rate cuts. But the updated June dot plot shows a more conservative perspective with just one to two cutsbacks. “The March dot plot recommended cutting rates 2-3 times in 2024; but, June’s dot plot implies just 1-2 cuts could be expected,” Ted stated.
Bitcoin’s $66,000 Support Level
This concordance between Fed estimates and market forecasts most likely affords the central bank more freedom in forthcoming interest rate decisions. Maintaining the $66,000 support level for Bitcoin is quite important.
Ted emphasized the need of this level and remarked, “Bitcoin has to sustain its support at $66,000. Should something go wrong, sellers might seize a commanding presence on the market and propel quick liquidations from the bulls. This level of support is seen as vital and might influence the attitude of the whole market.
For Bitcoin and Ethereum, the implied weekly ranges reflect the traders’ wary optimism. While Bitcoin is anticipated to trade between $65,101 and $74,101 Ethereum is expected to move between $3,388 and $4,025. Ted stressed, “this week is crucial for maintaining BTC’s (and hence, the general trend of the crypto market’s.”
Ted also noted the strength of US tech stocks, especially the NASDAQ, which lately has reached fresh all-time highs. With the NASDAQ breaking out to new all-time highs in expectation of softer central bank policies to come, US IT companies are definitely feeling the disinflationary vibes, he observed. This gap suggests that something might be developing for Bitcoin.
Still another subject of interest is Ethereum’s relative performance versus Bitcoin. Ted particularly advised Ethereum could start to “play catch-up against Bitcoin,” especially with the upcoming release of spot Ethereum ETFs on Wall Street. One should monitor Ethereum’s capacity to close the performance disparity with Bitcoin in the next days.
Moreover under scrutiny are Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate choices. These central banks are not expected to lower rates, but their activities will be keenly observed for any signals of future monetary policy adjustments. “It’s not expected that the Australian or Swiss Central Banks cut rates at this week’s meeting, rather remain on hold,” Ted added.
ETF flows, which slowed last week due to market anxiety ahead of significant macro events, also seem to be fairly crucial. Ted noted, “Last week revealed diminishing ETF flows on Wall Street for Bitcoin. Mostly resulting from worry before significant macro events, BTC strength returning next week will be vital. Strong ETF flows help to maintain liquidity and support the Bitcoin price.
All things considered, this week will be vital for Bitcoin and the more general crypto markets. The interplay of disinflation trends, Federal Reserve communications, significant support levels, and outside economic developments will define the direction of the market. Ted stated, “The data is obviously pointing towards a shift to more accommodating monetary policy and maybe sooner rather than later. This validates my view that drops offer purchasing opportunities for risk assets including cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Bitcoin was trading at $65,965 at the time of reporting.
