Following Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, industry analysts at Kaiko are predicting a divergence from the expected bull run that is usually correlated with these events.
In contrast to previous forecasts, a recent research analysis from the Paris-based blockchain firm states that the decline in miners’ incentives from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC is not anticipated to be the main factor driving Bitcoin’s development over the next 12–18 months.
It [Bitcoin] may have enjoyed massive returns following its previous halvings, but the latest event comes as the asset class matures and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain.
KaikoBitcoin’s Price Dependent on Investor Engagement and ETF Integration
Rather, analysts at Kaiko contend that Bitcoin’s price will ultimately depend on its capacity to draw in new investors, especially if spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are made available in the US and will soon be available in Hong Kong. This change demonstrates how BTC is becoming increasingly integrated into traditional financial processes.
Because of the special circumstances surrounding this halving—which took place in an atmosphere with high interest rates—analysts are unsure how BTC will trade in the long run. Since there has never been a parallel in history, Kaiko highlights the significance of strong liquidity and rising demand in boosting Bitcoin’s value proposition.
This time, there may be a divergence from past market trends, usually identified by a post-halve price spike. This could be because of many variables, including the compressed nature of the price cycle around the halving event. In contrast to past cycles, Bitcoin’s price has increased significantly, setting new records before the halving, with a peak of $73,750 in mid-March.
Analysts and investors are carefully monitoring BTC reaction to this historic halving event as the cryptocurrency environment continues to change. The consequences of this development go beyond the near term and could affect the trajectory of digital asset markets in general.
