On August 7, Polymarket said that the chances for the U.S. presidential election had changed. The platform now sees the election as a “tossup.” Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has a 51% chance of winning at the moment.
Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is close behind with 48%. Trump had been in a strong lead since June, so this is a significant turn around for him.
Over $500 million has been bet on the future election on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where people can use cryptocurrencies to bet on real-world events.
Polymarket Bets On Election
About $67 million has been bet on Trump and $54 million has been bet on Harris. Other significant wagers have been made on events that are less likely to happen.
There is a $46 million bet on the very rare event that Michelle Obama becomes the 47th president of the United States. The platform says there is only a 1% chance of this happening.
After President Joe Biden decided not to run for re-election in July, Harris became the likely Democratic candidate. On August 6, she officially won the nomination. National polls showed that Trump’s lead over Biden grew in July, but it quickly shrunk after Biden backed Harris.
Dune Analytics says that Polymarket recently passed $1.1 billion in total bets, which makes its political betting markets more widely recognized. The site is mostly for making political predictions, but it also has markets for crypto, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympics.Even though Polymarket is growing, its founder is allegedly thinking about adding fees in the future.
