The traders on Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win the polls right after the second U.S. presidential debate.
Polymarket lets people bet on the results of many different things, including political events. Many traders still think that Donald Trump will win the next election, but the majority of them expect that tests taken after the debate will show that Harris did better than Trump.
At this point, Polymarket data shows that there is a 75% chance that Harris will be named the winner of the debate. This is an enormous shift from September 6, when Trump’s odds were 38% to September 9, when they were only 25%.
Polymarket Betting Trends Explained
On Tuesday, September 10, 2024, ABC will show the second U.S. presidential discussion. Before this, there was the first discussion in July, where Democratic candidate Joe Biden had a rough time.
In the end, Biden dropped out of the race and backed Kamala Harris, his vice president, to replace him on the Democratic ticket.
Both camps are confident in their chances in the debate, but Polymarket traders think Harris will do better than Trump, at least in the polls that come out after the debate.
The result of an Ipsos/538 poll will decide how Polymarket will handle this particular bet. If the poll shows that Harris is ahead, the bet will win; if it shows that Trump is ahead, the bet will win. There will be a 50/50 score if there is a tie.
Traders have bet a total of about $150,000 on the result of the debate so far. Bigger polls, like the New York Times/Siena poll, show that the race between Harris and Trump is very close. Both candidates are about the same before the election on November 4, 2024.
Polymarket also sees a similar trend in the overall election market, where Trump has a slight lead over Harris (52% to 47%) and total bets have topped $844 million.
