78% of Polymarket users have bet $1.5 million that interest rates will go down by 25 basis points. Twenty-one percent of the people in the second-largest betting pool have put $2.4 million on a rate drop of 50 basis points or more.
Among the last 4% of bets, there were predictions of both “No change” and a “25+ bps increase.” Even though Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments make it seem unlikely that both events will happen, traders have bet a total of $7 million on these markets.
After Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, the Polymarket mostly believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates between September 17 and 18.
Polymarket Bets Signal Trends
Powell gave hints that it was time to change policy, but he declined to indicate how drastically the Fed would change its approach. The final choice will depend on new information and estimates of risk.
Most people agree that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Bitcoin and the digital market as a whole could start to rise. Lower interest rates usually make funds more available, which makes investors more likely to borrow funds and put it to use in a variety of investments.
The expected change in direction by the Federal Reserve could happen in the fourth quarter, which has generally been an excellent period for Bitcoin and other digital assets.
August and September are usually bearish months for Bitcoin, but QCP Capital found that October has been the most bullish, with an average gain of 22.9% over the past nine years.
This was also said by Fideum co-founder Darren Franceschini in a note released on September 3. He agreed that a Bitcoin rise is likely if the Fed lowers interest rates.
Bitfinex experts said Bitcoin could drop 20%, and QCP Capital said BTC could find support at $54,000 before making an important move up. Franceschini, on the other hand, told people to be cautiously optimistic.
