This week one of Polymarket’s biggest bettors, known as “Theo4,” made $21.9 million by correctly predicting Donald Trump’s victory in a range of markets on the platform. An investor bet on Trump’s winincluding over Kamala Harris—and called Trump a winner in the popular vote, an outcome that defied history.
Trump’s defeats in both 2016 and 2020 were both based on his loss of the popular vote, yet his electoral college wins were decisive in both cycles.A first for us is Theo4 a professional French investor, who first caught the headlines after a New York Times report insinuated that he may be faking public perception to sway Trump’s odds
Polymarket Investor Defends Strategy Amid Legal And Bias Claims
The investor, who denied the allegations, said he had personal bias and a data driven strategy. Harris was tipped to do well in national polls and to have been underestimated as a Trump vote, he said.
About $3 billion was transacted in ‘Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?’ while Theo4 poured nearly $9m of shares. Trump was elected president-elect on Nov. 8; this market settled on Nov. 6.
Ahead of the election, platforms for making predictions like Polymarket and Kalshi gained steam, and were litigated against for getting increasingly greedy with their offerings and subjecting their customers to class action lawsuits for supposedly promoting ‘horse race’ betting around… the election.
Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else. The global truth machine is here, powered by the people. Shayne Coplan on X
There was also some alleged political bias with claims of political bias filling the media. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan rejected those claims, saying the platform is a neutral data source. The fact that high volume, liquid prediction markets can predict electoral outcomes helped bolster the platform’s success.
